How Safe/Dangerous is Chicago Really?
Good afternoon, friends, followers and fellow Chicagoans. I hope you're all out there enjoying this Saturday solely based on the fact that it's the weekend, given that its a typical yet unseasonably cool day. Oh well, we take what we can get, don't we? At least this isn't a recap of 2018's weeks long snow-pacalypse in the middle of what was supposedly "spring."
Now, onto bigger and better things. Today's post will be slightly different than the usual, as I'll be focusing on one particular issue: the media's often frightening, alarmist portrayal of our city and how we should respond, sorting facts from fiction. I have several interviews with locals who are doing great things in their communities coming up within the next few weeks; however, so stay tuned for that.
What was it that inspired me to address today's topic? The fact that whenever my non-local or out of state friends and family visit, they almost always ask me whether I "feel safe" living here. I've gotten the question or slight variations of it several times over the past two years of living here, and it never fails to get me thinking. My instinctual answer is yes, seeing as I've been fortunate enough to never have been a victim of a violent crime.
The majority of my experiences where I've felt unsafe have involved aggressive catcalling by your typical neighborhood pervs, and I've thankfully never been followed by any of them. I will say that that was somewhat of a surprise initially, as I'd never before lived in a truly urban environment where so many of us are out walking as opposed to driving everywhere. Despite this; however, it is a valid question: How safe do I feel? Am I too cavalier as I travel around the city on a daily basis, or am I too paranoid? I strive to be neither, but with the societal messages we are inundated with as residents, you'd think there are Wild West shoot outs in nearly every neighborhood on any given day, especially if you happen to be south of Roosevelt Road or west of Western Avenue.
While many of us who live in and travel around the city on a regular basis recognize that these former "rules of thumb" are quite outdated, those who do not may not be aware of the realities of genuine revitalization and neighborhood changes through the decades which have been somewhat inevitable. As a result, they undoubtedly could find themselves at the paranoid end of the spectrum and miss out on some of Chicago's best kept secrets. For the sake of focus and keeping this post at a reasonable length, I won't even begin to open the can of worms that is gentrification and its many effects on formerly lower middle or lower class neighborhoods, but will underscore an undeniable reality: Urban America is not and has never been a static entity. This is partially why it is not everyone's cup of tea, and I can understand and respect that.
What I do not understand and cannot get behind is the unfair and biased way we as a city are portrayed not only nationally but internationally. When I was studying abroad in London during undergrad, one of the locals asked where I was from. When I told him Chicago, he jokingly said, "bang, bang!" It was kind of funny, but mostly sad. Hence, I felt the need to embark upon a statistical analysis to the best of my ability and at least take a stab at the question of Chicago's safety once and for all.
Do we have a crime problem in this city that is poorly and inadequately addressed? Absolutely. But just how much does the issue of violent (and non-violent, for that matter) crime effect the average Chicagoan? (And by average, I am referring to those who do not reside in the most crime-ridden neighborhoods). Just how "at risk" are we by simply existing here? Let's find out.
Journalist Niall McCarthy at Forbes does an excellent job of tackling this question in his article "Is Chicago Really America's Most Dangerous City?" He notes, "Chicago has a reputation as one of America's most violent cities. 2016 was the worst year for homicides in nearly two decades in the Windy City with 762 murders, 3,550 shooting incidents and 4,331 shooting victims. On average, 12 people are shot in Chicago every single day and it experienced more murders than New York and Los Angeles combined last year. The number of homicides in Chicago since 2001 also eclipsed U.S. war dead in Iraq and Afghanistan in late 2016."
Yikes. Those stats certainly are chilling and make me mourn for what is and can be an even greater world class city. He goes on, however, to make some crucial points, firstly that the reputation we have as "the most dangerous" is unwarranted when you look at national FBI statistics of homicides per 100,000 residents:
Now, onto bigger and better things. Today's post will be slightly different than the usual, as I'll be focusing on one particular issue: the media's often frightening, alarmist portrayal of our city and how we should respond, sorting facts from fiction. I have several interviews with locals who are doing great things in their communities coming up within the next few weeks; however, so stay tuned for that.
What was it that inspired me to address today's topic? The fact that whenever my non-local or out of state friends and family visit, they almost always ask me whether I "feel safe" living here. I've gotten the question or slight variations of it several times over the past two years of living here, and it never fails to get me thinking. My instinctual answer is yes, seeing as I've been fortunate enough to never have been a victim of a violent crime.
The majority of my experiences where I've felt unsafe have involved aggressive catcalling by your typical neighborhood pervs, and I've thankfully never been followed by any of them. I will say that that was somewhat of a surprise initially, as I'd never before lived in a truly urban environment where so many of us are out walking as opposed to driving everywhere. Despite this; however, it is a valid question: How safe do I feel? Am I too cavalier as I travel around the city on a daily basis, or am I too paranoid? I strive to be neither, but with the societal messages we are inundated with as residents, you'd think there are Wild West shoot outs in nearly every neighborhood on any given day, especially if you happen to be south of Roosevelt Road or west of Western Avenue.
While many of us who live in and travel around the city on a regular basis recognize that these former "rules of thumb" are quite outdated, those who do not may not be aware of the realities of genuine revitalization and neighborhood changes through the decades which have been somewhat inevitable. As a result, they undoubtedly could find themselves at the paranoid end of the spectrum and miss out on some of Chicago's best kept secrets. For the sake of focus and keeping this post at a reasonable length, I won't even begin to open the can of worms that is gentrification and its many effects on formerly lower middle or lower class neighborhoods, but will underscore an undeniable reality: Urban America is not and has never been a static entity. This is partially why it is not everyone's cup of tea, and I can understand and respect that.
What I do not understand and cannot get behind is the unfair and biased way we as a city are portrayed not only nationally but internationally. When I was studying abroad in London during undergrad, one of the locals asked where I was from. When I told him Chicago, he jokingly said, "bang, bang!" It was kind of funny, but mostly sad. Hence, I felt the need to embark upon a statistical analysis to the best of my ability and at least take a stab at the question of Chicago's safety once and for all.
Do we have a crime problem in this city that is poorly and inadequately addressed? Absolutely. But just how much does the issue of violent (and non-violent, for that matter) crime effect the average Chicagoan? (And by average, I am referring to those who do not reside in the most crime-ridden neighborhoods). Just how "at risk" are we by simply existing here? Let's find out.
Journalist Niall McCarthy at Forbes does an excellent job of tackling this question in his article "Is Chicago Really America's Most Dangerous City?" He notes, "Chicago has a reputation as one of America's most violent cities. 2016 was the worst year for homicides in nearly two decades in the Windy City with 762 murders, 3,550 shooting incidents and 4,331 shooting victims. On average, 12 people are shot in Chicago every single day and it experienced more murders than New York and Los Angeles combined last year. The number of homicides in Chicago since 2001 also eclipsed U.S. war dead in Iraq and Afghanistan in late 2016."
Yikes. Those stats certainly are chilling and make me mourn for what is and can be an even greater world class city. He goes on, however, to make some crucial points, firstly that the reputation we have as "the most dangerous" is unwarranted when you look at national FBI statistics of homicides per 100,000 residents:
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| Source: McCarthy, N. (2017). Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/06/21/is-chicago-really-americas-most-dangerous-city-infographic/#68e7cc6550da |
Compared to other relatively large cities, Chicago is certainly not the undisputed "murder capital." Chicago may have a higher number of murders per year, but its population is also notably larger than all of the other cities on this list.
Loyola University Chicago criminologist (shoutout to my alma mater!) Arthur Lurigio did a recent interview with NPR's Cheryl Corley, highlighting the importance and power of media perceptions and history in regards to Chicago's reputation. As Corley noted, "Lurigio says Chicago's reputation for violence dates back to the days of mobster Al Capone and Tommy guns. It's an image that endures. And in some Chicago neighborhoods, widespread gun violence is a constant. Entrenched segregation, severe poverty and economic disparity are all factors. In Chicago's North Side and the city's downtown, the rate of violence is similar to low levels in Los Angeles and New York."
Lurigio also makes the telling note that many disregard statistics in favor of emotional portrayals of urban violence. "What affects them viscerally and emotionally are the graphic images of the city - of crime scenes and people in the throes of grief, having lost young ones, children being shocked. Those images stay with us," he rightly states. While those reactions are undoubtedly justified, we shouldn't let them color our perception of the city as a whole, as such epidemic violence simply isn't occurring throughout it. While the social worker in me will always advocate for the healthy expression of emotions, we cannot and should not allow them to have undisputed rule over our lives.
Writer Gary Lucido includes a table of each of Chicago's 77 community areas (each of which include several individual 'neighborhoods,' even our geography is complicated) in relation to its homicide rate, which illustrates that those toward the bottom of the list (with the most homicides per capita) are all geographically near one another on the South and West sides:
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| Source: Lucido, G. (2018). Retrieved from http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2018/07/chicagos-safest-and-most-dangerous-neighborhoods-2018-murders/ |
Lucido also reports some notable patterns: "As you probably already know the frequency of murders is highest on the west side, west of California and south of North Avenue, and on the south side, south of Pershing.
- It seems to me that murders moved farther west than last year, with fewer incidents occurring between Western and California.
- It looks like the frequency of murders is higher on the West side than the South side.
- The murders tend to be clustered in several small areas.
- Busy streets tend to be popular places for killing someone.
While some of these numbers may sound high, it is worth noting that the entire state of Illinois' average homicide rate per 1,000 residents is 0.08, which can be re-calculated to 8 per 100,000 residents. Thirty-three of Chicago's community areas toward the top of the above list have less than 8 homicides per 100,000. Additionally, this number drops to 5 homicides per 100,000 for the US as a whole. Twenty-six Chicago community areas, each consisting of numerous neighborhoods, have a lower homicide rate per 100,000 than the United States as a whole on average.
In regards to violent crimes as a whole (murder, rape, assault and robbery), Chicago clocks in at 1,096 incidents per 100,000 residents, with the US as a whole at 394 incidents per 100,000. (Chicago Crime Rates and Statistics, Neighborhood Scout, 2018).
What about "non-violent crime" (burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft) you may be wondering? Chicago's rate is 1,154 per 100,000 residents, whereas the US rate is approximately 836 per 100,000. Yes, Chicago is clearly more dangerous than the United States on average, we must admit. But we also must acknowledge the reality that the public perception of Chicago is out of line when its numbers are comparatively analyzed with many other large cities. I've heard far fewer politicians and civilians go out of their way to talk about how horrifically dangerous New Orleans or Cincinnati are, for example, when that discussion may actually be more justifiable than applying such talking points to Chicago (Not that I believe fear mongering is an effective means of revitalizing a community by any means). While we may have once been a city where the Syndicate (Capone's people) thrived and made their home, this perception is no longer accurate on a national scale.
This trend can also be observed on a national level, with a survey by Pew Research showing that public perception of violent crime rates as a whole increasing is actually at odds with the statistics that show a double digit percentage decline in the US since 1993:
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| Source: Gramlich, J. (2016). Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/16/voters-perceptions-of-crime-continue-to-conflict-with-reality/ |
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the answer to how "safe" or "dangerous" Chicago really is may depend heavily upon your own perceptions. It has its danger, for sure, but it also has its thriving and beautiful communities. I do know for certain that we have a lot to be proud of that isn't limited to strong neighborhood kinship networks and senses of identity, a resilience unseen and unheard of in so many other cities (The Great Chicago Fire, anyone?), thousands of thriving small businesses and residents who advocate for shopping small, and culinary masterpieces that are too numerous to fully list (deep dish, Italian beef, Korean barbeque, authentic food from all corners of the world, many cases within walking distance). This, right here, is why and what I write.
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